2019 China International Conference in Macroeconomics Conference Program
PROGRAM DETAILS
Thursday, June 20, 2019, 2:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Conference Registration - Hotel Lobby, 1/F, Vienna Hotel
Friday, June 21, 2019, 8:00 am - 8:30 am
Conference Registration - Lobby, 1/F, PHBS Building
Friday, June 21, 2019, 8:30 am - 10:15 am
Chinese Macroeconomy - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Jian Wang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Is China Fudging its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Eric Hsu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussant: Michael Zheng Song, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Misallocation and Trade Imbalance: Theory and Evidence from China
Yiyao He, Zhejiang University
Shiyuan Pan, Zhejiang University
Kang Shi, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jenny Juanyi Xu, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Jiandong Ju, Tsinghua University
Political Distortions and Infrastructure Networks in China: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Analysis
Simon Alder, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Illenin Kondo, University of Notre Dame
Discussant: Yifan Zhang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Friday, June 21, 2019, 8:30 am - 10:15 am
Firm and Labor Markets - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Feng Dong, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
The Growth of Chinese R&D and Innovation
Xiaodan Gao, National University of Singapore
Jake Zhao, Peking University
Discussant: Xing Guo, University of Michigan
Skill Premium and Preferential Policy: The Case of China
Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University
Qing Liu, Tsinghua University
Wen Yao, Tsinghua University
Discussant: Liugang Sheng, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
An Equilibrium Labor Market Model with Internal and External Referrals
Youze Lang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Discussant: Min Zhang, East China Normal University
Friday, June 21, 2019, 10:15 am - 10:30 am
Group Photo - Lobby, PHBS Building
Friday, June 21, 2019, 10:45 am - 11:00 am
Welcome Speech - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Jinhui Bai, Associate Professor of Economics, Washington State University; Conference Secretary General, China Forum of Macroeconomic Research
Speakers: Wen Hai, Dean and Professor of Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School
Hao Zhou, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Jianjun Miao, Professor of Economics, Boston University; President, China Forum of Macroeconomic Research
Friday, June 21, 2019, 11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Keynote Speech - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Hao Zhou, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Speaker: Shang-Jin Wei, N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy, Columbia University
Speech: Monetary Policy in a World of Global Value Chains (joint with Yinxi Xie)
Friday, June 21, 2019, 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Conference Lunch - Shangshufang, 1/F, PHBS Building
Friday, June 21, 2019, 1:00 pm - 2:45 pm
Housing and the Macroeconomy - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Tao Zha, Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Real Estate Boom and Misallocation of Capital in China
Ting Chen, Hong Kong Baptist University
Laura Xiaolei Liu, Peking University
Wei Xiong, Princeton University
Li-An Zhou, Peking University
Discussant: Kaiji Chen, Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission
Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore
Yongheng Deng, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Quanlin Gu, Peking University
Jia He, Nankai University
Wenlan Qian, National University of Singapore
Yuan Ren, National University of Singapore
Discussant: Scott Baker, Northwestern University
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Zheng Liu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Pengfei Wang, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Tao Zha, Emory University and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discussant: Ernest Liu, Princeton University
Friday, June 21, 2019, 1:00 pm - 2:45 pm
Growth and Development in China - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Gang Gong, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
Firm Life-Cycle Learning and Misallocation
Ying Feng, University of California, San Diego
Discussant: Jing Hang, Sun Yat-sen University
Targeted Subsidy and Capital (Mis)Allocation
Hanyi Tao, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Juliana Yu Sun, Singapore Management University
State Reform and China's Productivity Deceleration: Firm-level Evidence
Jorge Alvarez, The International Monetary Fund
Tuo Chen, Tsinghua University
Grace Li, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Zi Wang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Friday, June 21, 2019, 3:00 pm - 4:45 pm
Inequality and Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Jinhui Bai, Washington State University and Tsinghua University
Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation
Abdou Ndiaye, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Discussant: Jackie Kai Zhao, University of Connecticut
Capitalist Human Capital
Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California
Qi Sun, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Yicheng Wang, University of Oslo
Discussant: Mi Luo, Emory University
MPC Heterogeneity in Europe: Sources and Policy Implications
Miguel Ampudia, European Central Bank
Russell Cooper, Pennsylvania State University
Julia Le Blanc, Deutsche Bundesbank
Guozhong Zhu, University of Alberta
Discussant: Chunzan Wu, University of Miami
Friday, June 21, 2019, 3:00 pm - 4:45 pm
Growth and Structural Change - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Laura Xiaolei Liu, Peking University
Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
Ernest Liu, Princeton University
Atif Mian, Princeton University
Amir Sufi, University of Chicago
Discussant: Shenzhe Jiang, Peking University
High-Skilled Services and Development in China
Lei Fang, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Berthold Herrendorf, Arizona State University
Discussant: Yang Tang, Nanyang Technological University
The Cyclical Behavior of Factor Shares
Michele Boldrin, Washington University in St. Louis
Yong Wang, Peking University
Lijun Zhu, Peking University
Discussant: Wei Jin, Tianjin University
Friday, June 21, 2019, 5:00 pm - 6:30 pm
Policy Panel - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Wen Hai, Dean and Professor of Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School
Panelists:
Haizhou Huang, Managing Director and Head of the Equities Department, China International Capital Corporation
Jiandong Ju, Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Zhiwei Zhang, Chief China Economist and Head of China Equity Strategy, Deutsche Bank AG Hong Kong Branch
Hao Zhou, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Haibin Zhu, Chief China Economist and Head of China Equity Strategy, J.P. Morgan
Friday, June 21, 2019, 6:30 pm
Departure for Dinner - Lobby, 1/F, PHBS Building
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 9:00 am - 10:45 am
Business Cycles - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Pengfei Wang, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Discussant: Rong Li, Renmin University of China
Low-Frequency Fiscal Uncertainty
Zhao Han, College of William and Mary
Discussant: Fudong Zhang, Tsinghua University
The Great Stampede: Financial Crises and Unemployment Traps
Xiaodong Fan, University of New South Wales
Chao He, East China Normal University
Discussant: Marshall Urias, Peking University
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 9:00 am - 10:45 am
Robustness and Rational Inattention - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Yuzhe Zhang, Texas A&M University and Peking University
Multivariate LQG Control under Rational Inattention in Continuous Time
Jianjun Miao, Boston University
Discussant: Yulei Luo, The University of Hong Kong
Rational Inattention and the Unemployment Trap
Martin Ellison, University of Oxford
Alistair Macaulay, University of Oxford
Discussant: Alexandre Kohlhas, Stockholm University
Ambiguity and Information Processing in a Model of Intermediary Asset Pricing
Leyla Jianyu Han, The University of Hong Kong
Kenneth Kasa, Simon Fraser University
Yulei Luo, The University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Jun Nie, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Keynote Speech - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Thomas Sargent, William Berkley Professor of Economics, New York University; Professor of Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School; 2011 Nobel Laureate in Economics
Speaker: Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago; 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economics
Speech: Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change (joint with William A. Brock and Michael Barnett)
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Conference Lunch - Shangshufang, 1/F, PHBS Building
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 1:00 pm - 2:45 pm
International Macro - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Jiao Shi, Peking University
The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission
Zhen Huo, Yale University
Andrei Levchenko, University of Michigan
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, The University of Texas at Austin
Discussant: Kang Shi, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
A Geographic Model with Capital Flow
Xiao Chen, Tsinghua University
Jiandong Ju, Tsinghua University
Discussant: Xiao Wang, University of Science and Technology of China
On the Optimal Design of a Financial Stability Fund
Arpad Abraham, European University Institute
Eva Carceles-Poveda, Stony Brook University
Yan Liu, Wuhan University
Ramon Marimon, European University Institute and UPF - Barcelona GSE
Discussant: Yan Bai, University of Rochester
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 1:00 pm - 2:45 pm
银行信贷与中国货币政策 - Room 321, PHBS Building
分会场主席：潘士远，浙江大学
僵尸企业、信贷错配与宏观系统风险
许志伟，上海交通大学
董 丰，上海交通大学
评论人：贾盾，中国人民大学
过桥贷款、金融风险与资源配置效率
彭俞超，中央财经大学
沈 吉，北京大学
高昊宇，中央财经大学
评论人：杨光，南开大学
货币政策、宏观审慎监管与银行系统性风险承担
陈国进，厦门大学
蒋晓宇，厦门大学
赵向琴，厦门大学
评论人：郭豫媚，中央财经大学
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 3:00 pm - 4:45 pm
Asset Pricing - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Kai Li, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Endogenous Price War Risks
Winston Wei Dou, University of Pennsylvania
Yan Ji, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Wei Wu, Texas A&M University
Discussant: Tao Jin, Tsinghua University
Macro-Financial Volatility under Dispersed Information
Jieran Wu, Zhejiang University
Jianjun Miao, Boston University
Eric Young, University of Virginia
Discussant: Kenneth Kasa, Simon Fraser University
Capital Heterogeneity, Time-To-Build, and Return Predictability
Ding Luo, City University of Hong Kong
Discussant: Yan Ji, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 3:00 pm - 4:45 pm
Money and Banking - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Yiyao He, Zhejiang University
Shadow Banking: China's Dual-Track Interest Rate Liberalization
Hao Wang, Tsinghua University
Honglin Wang, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Lisheng Wang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hao Zhou, Tsinghua University
Discussant: Wenlan Luo, Tsinghua University
A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks
Chunya Bu, University of Rochester
John Rogers, Federal Reserve Board; Fudan University; Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Wenbin Wu, Fudan University
Discussant: Xuguang Simon Sheng, American University
The Effects of News When Liquidity Matters
Chao Gu, University of Missouri
Han Han, Peking University
Randall Wright, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Discussant: Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Peking University
Saturday, June 22, 2019, 5:15 pm
Departure for Dinner - Lobby, 1/F, PHBS Building
Sunday, June 23, 2019, 9:00am-10:45am
Banking - Room 323, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Di Li, Peking University
Disruption of Long Term Bank Credit
Jonathan Payne, New York University
Discussant: Ji Huang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
A Dynamic Theory of Learning and Relationship Lending
Yunzhi Hu, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Felipe Varas, Duke University
Discussant: Zongbo Huang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Diversification and Systemic Bank Runs
Xuewen Liu, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Chao Gu, University of Missouri
Sunday, June 23, 2019, 9:00 am - 10:45 am
Monetary Policy - Room 321, PHBS Building
Session Chair: Shenghao Zhu, University of International Business and Economics
Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy
Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame
Ji Zhang, Tsinghua University
Discussant: Wenbin Wu, Fudan University
Fisherian Debt-Deflation Zero Lower Bound
Dan Cao, Georgetown University
Wenlan Luo, Tsinghua University
Guangyu Nie, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Discussant: Ji Zhang, Tsinghua University
Managing Expectation in the New Keynesian Model
Robert G. King, Boston University
Yang K. Lu, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Donghai Zhang, University of Bonn
Sunday, June 23, 2019, 11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Keynote Speech - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Jianjun Miao, Professor of Economics, Boston University; President, China Forum of Macroeconomic Research
Speaker: Mikhail Golosov, Homer J. Livingston Professor in Economics, University of Chicago
Speech: Inequality, Business Cycles, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy
Sunday, June 23, 2019, 12:00 pm - 12:15 pm
Best Papers Awards Ceremony - Room 509, PHBS Building
Moderator: Pengfei Wang, Professor of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Award Presenter:
Wen Hai, Dean and Professor of Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School
Hao Zhou, Associate Dean and Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Sunday, June 23, 2019, 12:15 pm - 1:15 pm
Conference Lunch - Shangshufang, 1/F, PHBS Building